Smarter Player Prop
Research

Per-stat projections for NFL and NBA, powered by matchup analysis and backtested against real sportsbook lines.

Validated on 20,000+ historical prop bets across a full NBA season.

Jump to Value Finder: NBA NFL MLB
20,000+
Bets Backtested
+21.5%
NBA Backtest ROI
2
Sports Covered
10
Stat Categories

NBA — Today's Top Picks

Our highest-confidence plays for today, based on projection edge and AI model

Keldon Johnson ✓
F-G · SAS vs NYK · Jun 10
Rebounds OVER 2.5
Proj 3.7 47.6% edge
DraftKings (-116)
Luke Kornet ✓
C-F · SAS vs NYK · Jun 10
Rebounds OVER 2.2
Proj 4.4 104.0% edge
BetMGM (+135)
Mikal Bridges ✓
G-F · NYK vs SAS · Jun 10
Points UNDER 12.3
Proj 10.9 11.5% edge
FanDuel (-110)

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MLB — Today's Top Picks

Our highest-confidence plays for today, based on projection edge and AI model

Bryce Eldridge
DH · SF vs WSH · Jun 10
Total Bases OVER 0.5
Proj 2.5 410.0% edge
Caesars (-157)
Vinnie Pasquantino
1B · KC vs TEX · Jun 10
Total Bases OVER 0.5
Proj 2.0 304.0% edge
BetMGM (-175)
Brandon Valenzuela
C · TOR vs PHI · Jun 10
Total Bases OVER 0.5
Proj 2.0 304.0% edge
BetMGM (-135)

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What You Get

Every tool is designed to help you make sharper prop decisions.

Player Projections

Per-stat projections tuned with weighted rolling averages, opponent difficulty, and home/away splits.

Matchup Analysis

Defense rankings for every stat and team. See which matchups boost or suppress player production.

Value Finder

Compare projections against live lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. Spot the biggest edges.

How It Works

1

We project

Our model generates per-stat projections using historical performance, matchup data, and usage trends.

2

We compare

Projections are compared against live prop lines from major sportsbooks to find disagreements.

3

You decide

Each play gets a value rating based on matchup quality — the strongest predictor we've found.

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